Forecasting

The world in 2030 – some assumptions

This is a list of things I currently believe about the future and how I think it will come about. Part (1) will be familiar to anyone who’s read “Superforecasting”, part (2) is about shapes of progress and speculative mostly insofar as I’m assigning different shapes of progress to certain developments. The concrete predictions inContinueContinue reading “The world in 2030 – some assumptions”

The world of work in 2040 (project)

I am doing a 10 day project on the future of work. Below are some starting thoughts to kick me off, as well as the questions I intend to ponder over the next few days. Since I am not an expert in the area, your input is highly likely to make the project much better,ContinueContinue reading “The world of work in 2040 (project)”

How good are we at predicting the future?

After getting a bit lost in the question of whether we should in principle be able to have a clue about future ramifications of our actions, I would like to turn back to questions of how well we’re actually doing so far. It looks like, for long-term projections, we are indeed pretty clueless. This document,ContinueContinue reading “How good are we at predicting the future?”

What do we need to forecast AI development?

I am sorry. This is an awfully broad question, but it’s already late (which I notice by counting the number of spelling mistakes I make in a sentence – 4 in this one so far, ah, now 5). I had lots of thinking time and reading time and discussion time today. My head is oneContinueContinue reading “What do we need to forecast AI development?”